It is so rare to get in-depth FEA reports like what you’ve linked us here. Here’s what Boeing states in the report:
“ There is still detail design work that will need to be completed. However, both the C4 and C11 configurations come close to an acceptable conceptual design. A small test program would be needed to address some of the outstanding questions. Additional modeling and optimization are also needed at the detail design level. The inclusion of portals, motor attachments, tanks and other peripherals would need to be included in a final analysis.
More work needs to be done to define thermal load and cure shrinkage for both the composite cylinder and for the bonded joint. This composite structure is much thicker than most of the structure currently being produced. Thermal strains may play a significant role in the design of the structure. The time required for fabrication and the extended time that the material will be at elevated temperature during cure and bonding needs to be examined. These topics were mostly avoided during the first part of the design cycle. This report describes a conceptual design and a preliminary feasibility study. The design is feasible, but will require additional work in the areas of manufacturing, cure kinetics, material allowable, assembly, and dimensional tolerance.”
In summary - even if Oceangate developed a robust design, they’d still need to manufacture the submarine. It appears they never built enough test articles to develop a baseline for robustness, because they never did destructive testing at depth with actual hardware they never knew their margins and were never able to validate their models to reality.
The guy sounds like the epitome of the sociopathic CEO. Smartest guy in the room, knows better than all the trained, experienced engineers who urged caution. Too bad his passengers listened to him.
>The guy sounds like the epitome of the sociopathic CEO. Smartest guy in the room, knows better than all the trained, experienced engineers who urged caution. Too bad his passengers listened to him.
No, he doesn't sounds sociopathic at all. People who "know better" than all the specialists aren't showing a sociopathic personality trait at all. Arrogance and stupidity, perhaps, but those aren't equated with sociopathy.
A sociopathic CEO would be someone who has no empathy. There's no evidence of that here, in fact probably the opposite. Stockton was just a fool.
Seriously, people need to stop using the "sociopathic" label for everyone they don't like.
Edit: to add to this, this reminds me of young people constantly using the word "gaslighting" when they really mean "lying". People who lie to you aren't engaging in an elaborate plan to make you question your own sanity; they're just liars. Please go watch the movie before ever using the term again.
You can fight the good fight in social situations too, you just have to come at it sideways and make people laugh rather than engaging in head-on pedantry.
Disregarding consequences, acting impulsively, etc are major signs. So no disregarding safety concerns and getting into an unsafe situation really is sociopathic behavior.
>So no disregarding safety concerns and getting into an unsafe situation really is sociopathic behavior.
Roughly half the US population acted exactly this way during the COVID-19 pandemic: refusing to wear masks or get vaccinations despite expert recommendations at the time. There's no way that half of a large population is sociopathic; they're just stubborn fools.
Younger people to it less seriously, but they also had vastly lower risks. In the US below 9,000 people under the age of 30 died out of 1.1 million and of those many had significant health issues. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-...
You shouldn’t expect those groups to react the same when one is facing 100x the risk of the other.
A sociopath would certainly have knowingly put other people's lives at risk, but would never put his own life at risk knowingly. As sibling said, Stockton wasn't a sociopath, just a fool.
It's interesting to note how an animation was developed in the course of this investigation. I know the Chemical Safety Board does similar animations for industrial accidents. [1]
I just saw a news headline that the estate of the oceanographer who died on the Titan is suing the company for $50M. How exactly is this possible? Who are they suing? I didn't think there even was an OceanGate company in existence any more: their founder is dead, and no one in their right mind would ride on one of their subs any more, so what assets do they even have to sue for? They weren't some big tech company with billions in assets; they were some crappy little start-up trying to build a business by selling cheap submersible rides to rich people, and from what I remember, didn't exactly have solid financials at the time and certainly no extra money in the bank to sue for. And IIRC the business didn't have any kind of liability insurance, so what is the point of a big wrongful-death lawsuit against a defunct company with no assets?
OceanGate is probably still a going concern on paper. They no doubt have premises, equipment, other assets, creditors, cash in the bank and so on.
This lawsuit is probably an attempt to get a seat at the liquidation table if nothing else. They will probably not get 50M out, but I don't think that's the point.
Also keep in mind that this is the /estate/ that's suing, so there is a no doubt a lawyer somewhere in the mix that saw an opportunity to increase their executor fees and make bank.
Of course, you can hire a lawyer and sue anybody for anything. But hiring that lawyer and filing court motions costs money, so there's no point if the entity you're suing has no money. That's why I was curious, but according to other posts here, it does seem there might be at least some money to go after.
The employees are the ones "who labeled [the] experimental submersible unsafe prior to its last, fatal voyage," and are "testify[ing] Tuesday before U.S. Coast Guard investigators" [1].
So, a DEAD person is suing a company, and what you see as a problem with that scenario is that the DEAD person will never see those 50 million because the company, that this DEAD person is sueing, does not have that kind of cash?
The Basic Factual Information presentation is pretty astonishing. There were so many opportunities to stop and reflect on what a bad idea this whole enterprise was.
During the prototype phase:
"June 2019: OceanGate pilot visually identified a large crack on the internal surface of the carbon fiber hull."
"October 2019: TITAN tested at Deep Ocean Test Facility. Hull showed signs of fatigue, hull derated to 3000M."
On the first expedition:
"Conducted 1 test dive (dive #63) to depth on TITANIC (3,840M) before carrying paying passengers/ “mission specialists"
• multiple drop weight issues to include the tray being jettisoned
due to malfunction,
• drop weight and thruster failure at 3,500M, and
• platform damaged on recovery."
On the last expedition:
"Mission #2 (May 20 – May 28)
• POLAR PRINCE departed St. Johns on May 20th enroute TITANIC with TITAN in tow at an average speed of 7.4 knots (8.4 mph). May 22nd, conducted unmanned dive to 8 meters (Dive 84). On May 24th, after a night of high seas and fog, the TITAN and its platform were found partially sunk in the morning with the tail cone fairing ripped off. May 27th conducted post incident test dive, recorded 13 equipment issued requiring correction."
And maybe the worst, on the penultimate mission before its total constructive loss:
"On June 12th, while conducting Dive# 87, TITAN experienced a variable ballast tank issue, upon resurfacing, an error caused platform to become inverted to ~45 degrees with the bow of the TITAN up, slamming all 5 persons to the aft of the submersible. The TITAN became partially disconnected to the LARS and with the approximate 6 foot [seas?], slammed the submersible and the occupants for ~1 hour until the platform was corrected."
Spending an hour being slammed around in an oversized washing machine really should have given someone time to consider whether maybe their reach was exceeding their grasp. Unbelievable hubris.
Cigarette packs in my country have huge wearing labels that say they'll kill you and feature gross photos of various illnesses it causes and people still smoke like the Hogwarts Express. So no, it wouldn't discourage everyone from engaging in extreme life threatening activities.
CNN puts it as - "dropped two wts" - the Titan’s text to its mother ship read, referring to weights the submersible could shed in hopes of returning to the surface.
If you open "transcript" you can "Control+F" anything you might want to hear, but it's all pretty interesting.
It is so rare to get in-depth FEA reports like what you’ve linked us here. Here’s what Boeing states in the report:
“ There is still detail design work that will need to be completed. However, both the C4 and C11 configurations come close to an acceptable conceptual design. A small test program would be needed to address some of the outstanding questions. Additional modeling and optimization are also needed at the detail design level. The inclusion of portals, motor attachments, tanks and other peripherals would need to be included in a final analysis. More work needs to be done to define thermal load and cure shrinkage for both the composite cylinder and for the bonded joint. This composite structure is much thicker than most of the structure currently being produced. Thermal strains may play a significant role in the design of the structure. The time required for fabrication and the extended time that the material will be at elevated temperature during cure and bonding needs to be examined. These topics were mostly avoided during the first part of the design cycle. This report describes a conceptual design and a preliminary feasibility study. The design is feasible, but will require additional work in the areas of manufacturing, cure kinetics, material allowable, assembly, and dimensional tolerance.”
In summary - even if Oceangate developed a robust design, they’d still need to manufacture the submarine. It appears they never built enough test articles to develop a baseline for robustness, because they never did destructive testing at depth with actual hardware they never knew their margins and were never able to validate their models to reality.
>>> they never knew their margins and were never able to validate their models to reality
The fact they knew this and went ahead anyways and took six people to their graves with them is absolutely terrifying.
"At some point, safety is just pure waste."
-- Stockton Rush, OceanGate CEO.
The guy sounds like the epitome of the sociopathic CEO. Smartest guy in the room, knows better than all the trained, experienced engineers who urged caution. Too bad his passengers listened to him.
>The guy sounds like the epitome of the sociopathic CEO. Smartest guy in the room, knows better than all the trained, experienced engineers who urged caution. Too bad his passengers listened to him.
No, he doesn't sounds sociopathic at all. People who "know better" than all the specialists aren't showing a sociopathic personality trait at all. Arrogance and stupidity, perhaps, but those aren't equated with sociopathy.
A sociopathic CEO would be someone who has no empathy. There's no evidence of that here, in fact probably the opposite. Stockton was just a fool.
Seriously, people need to stop using the "sociopathic" label for everyone they don't like.
Edit: to add to this, this reminds me of young people constantly using the word "gaslighting" when they really mean "lying". People who lie to you aren't engaging in an elaborate plan to make you question your own sanity; they're just liars. Please go watch the movie before ever using the term again.
Too late to save the word "gaslight", that one has well and truly been rewritten to mean "lying to me".
Not too late by a long shot. Just keep insisting on the actual meaning; same for "terrorist", "facist", etc.
Good luck at parties....
You can fight the good fight in social situations too, you just have to come at it sideways and make people laugh rather than engaging in head-on pedantry.
Actually, sociopaths don’t just lack empathy, there’s actual cognitive impairment involved in terms of judging risks and outcomes.
> People with ASPD don’t care very much about other people’s well-being. They may take risks that jeopardize their own safety and others’.
https://therapist.com/personality/sociopathy/
Disregarding consequences, acting impulsively, etc are major signs. So no disregarding safety concerns and getting into an unsafe situation really is sociopathic behavior.
>So no disregarding safety concerns and getting into an unsafe situation really is sociopathic behavior.
Roughly half the US population acted exactly this way during the COVID-19 pandemic: refusing to wear masks or get vaccinations despite expert recommendations at the time. There's no way that half of a large population is sociopathic; they're just stubborn fools.
I think peoples risk tolerance is more rational than you might assume.
70+ year olds where vastly more likely to get vaccinated and use masks etc. https://usafacts.org/visualizations/covid-vaccine-tracker-st...
Younger people to it less seriously, but they also had vastly lower risks. In the US below 9,000 people under the age of 30 died out of 1.1 million and of those many had significant health issues. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-...
You shouldn’t expect those groups to react the same when one is facing 100x the risk of the other.
It's just part of internet slang. Everyone who does something people don't like is a sociopath. You are of course totally right.
He sounds suicidal.
A sociopath would certainly have knowingly put other people's lives at risk, but would never put his own life at risk knowingly. As sibling said, Stockton wasn't a sociopath, just a fool.
Well they did actually get to invalidate their model.
It's interesting to note how an animation was developed in the course of this investigation. I know the Chemical Safety Board does similar animations for industrial accidents. [1]
[1] https://www.csb.gov/videos/
Super interesting videos thanks.
I just saw a news headline that the estate of the oceanographer who died on the Titan is suing the company for $50M. How exactly is this possible? Who are they suing? I didn't think there even was an OceanGate company in existence any more: their founder is dead, and no one in their right mind would ride on one of their subs any more, so what assets do they even have to sue for? They weren't some big tech company with billions in assets; they were some crappy little start-up trying to build a business by selling cheap submersible rides to rich people, and from what I remember, didn't exactly have solid financials at the time and certainly no extra money in the bank to sue for. And IIRC the business didn't have any kind of liability insurance, so what is the point of a big wrongful-death lawsuit against a defunct company with no assets?
OceanGate is probably still a going concern on paper. They no doubt have premises, equipment, other assets, creditors, cash in the bank and so on.
This lawsuit is probably an attempt to get a seat at the liquidation table if nothing else. They will probably not get 50M out, but I don't think that's the point.
Also keep in mind that this is the /estate/ that's suing, so there is a no doubt a lawyer somewhere in the mix that saw an opportunity to increase their executor fees and make bank.
In the US you can sue anybody for anything. If its not completely and absolutely spurios it will get at least a hearing.
Of course, you can hire a lawyer and sue anybody for anything. But hiring that lawyer and filing court motions costs money, so there's no point if the entity you're suing has no money. That's why I was curious, but according to other posts here, it does seem there might be at least some money to go after.
Perhaps the employees. Anybody working on it knew there wasn’t enough testing, so they could be held personally liable.
The employees are the ones "who labeled [the] experimental submersible unsafe prior to its last, fatal voyage," and are "testify[ing] Tuesday before U.S. Coast Guard investigators" [1].
[1] https://apnews.com/article/titan-submersible-implosion-heari...
Some, yes. Fortunately. Also there was another owner I believe.
Their co-founder isn't dead, i don't know if he would be liable with his own assets in the US.
So, a DEAD person is suing a company, and what you see as a problem with that scenario is that the DEAD person will never see those 50 million because the company, that this DEAD person is sueing, does not have that kind of cash?
The dead person has next of kin, who would see the money if it exists. The signature on the lawsuit is somewhat of a formality.
Insurance.
The Basic Factual Information presentation is pretty astonishing. There were so many opportunities to stop and reflect on what a bad idea this whole enterprise was.
During the prototype phase:
"June 2019: OceanGate pilot visually identified a large crack on the internal surface of the carbon fiber hull."
"October 2019: TITAN tested at Deep Ocean Test Facility. Hull showed signs of fatigue, hull derated to 3000M."
On the first expedition:
"Conducted 1 test dive (dive #63) to depth on TITANIC (3,840M) before carrying paying passengers/ “mission specialists"
• 70 equipment issues requiring correction including:
• forward dome fell off during recovery,
• multiple drop weight issues to include the tray being jettisoned due to malfunction,
• drop weight and thruster failure at 3,500M, and
• platform damaged on recovery."
On the last expedition:
"Mission #2 (May 20 – May 28)
• POLAR PRINCE departed St. Johns on May 20th enroute TITANIC with TITAN in tow at an average speed of 7.4 knots (8.4 mph). May 22nd, conducted unmanned dive to 8 meters (Dive 84). On May 24th, after a night of high seas and fog, the TITAN and its platform were found partially sunk in the morning with the tail cone fairing ripped off. May 27th conducted post incident test dive, recorded 13 equipment issued requiring correction."
And maybe the worst, on the penultimate mission before its total constructive loss:
"On June 12th, while conducting Dive# 87, TITAN experienced a variable ballast tank issue, upon resurfacing, an error caused platform to become inverted to ~45 degrees with the bow of the TITAN up, slamming all 5 persons to the aft of the submersible. The TITAN became partially disconnected to the LARS and with the approximate 6 foot [seas?], slammed the submersible and the occupants for ~1 hour until the platform was corrected."
Spending an hour being slammed around in an oversized washing machine really should have given someone time to consider whether maybe their reach was exceeding their grasp. Unbelievable hubris.
> forward dome fell off during recovery
Was it made out of cardboard or cardboard derivatives??
“Move fast and break things”
Or, in this case, move fast and implode things :(
I wonder if any of the (paying!) passengers who were on board would have taken the risk if they would have had a chance to see this list...
Cigarette packs in my country have huge wearing labels that say they'll kill you and feature gross photos of various illnesses it causes and people still smoke like the Hogwarts Express. So no, it wouldn't discourage everyone from engaging in extreme life threatening activities.
Some people do dumb things, but that doesn’t mean everyone on that trip would have made the same decision given more information.
The first days live stream (as linked) is pretty interesting. It's 9 hours, of 9 days - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=avp_-wN3ekA&list=PLgOje37c-b...
The last message "dropped two wts" was normal and just slowing the descent - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=avp_-wN3ekA&t=29460s
CNN puts it as - "dropped two wts" - the Titan’s text to its mother ship read, referring to weights the submersible could shed in hopes of returning to the surface.
If you open "transcript" you can "Control+F" anything you might want to hear, but it's all pretty interesting.